Three Quantitive Forecasting

Identify three qualitative forecasting methods and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. 1. Jury of Executive Panel: Executive panel forecasting uses the expertise of experienced upper managers from various aspects of the business to predict forecast. Executives from areas such as sales, financial, operations and production get together to predict trends, sales, and demand estimates for their particular area of expertise. Advantages of Jury of executive include: a. Seasoned professional provides their opinion b.The responses provided are quick since executives are apart of the organization c. Vested interest in the company Disadvantages include: a. Group think (individual managers may go with the group instead of their own opinion) b. Tendency to go along with the #1 man/woman c. 2. Consumer Survey: This forecasting is focused directly to the consumer. A series of questions are presented to the consumer about a particular product or service. I have been asked to participate in numerous consumer surveys about a product or service that I have used.The survey may used to decide if a product should be created, changed or discontinued. It consist of a sampling consumer to determine demand/spending trends. Advantages of Consumer Survey include: a. Information comes directly from the source (the customer) b. Asks the customer their intention. c. Interviews done in person, although they can be time consuming, allows the interviewer to see the respondents body languages. Can probe for deeper questions Disadvantages of consumer survey include: a.Consumers may not be entirely truthful b. Interviews that are done in person can be time consuming. c. Mailing and telephone, although they take less time and money, do not allow for probing questions 3. Delphi Method: Delphi method of forecasting was developed by RAND in 1950 with the original intent to focus on how technology affected warfare. The Delphi method is made up of a panel of experts who answers a series of care fully designed questions. In addition to experts, Delphi method also uses staff and respondents.Delphi method requires anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation of respondents (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Because of anonymity, individuals are free to express their opinions without judgment or peer-pressure. Iteration gives them the opportunity to rethink their response after further consideration. Controlled feedback provides respondents with the opinion of the other members of the panel. Advantages of Delphi include: a. Anonymity: It allows respondents to freely give their opinion without fear of the other participants knowing who they are. b.It is conducted in writing so it allows the participants to respond at their convenience within a prescribed period of time. c. Is focused on the current issue only. Disadvantages of Delphi include: a. Anonymity is also a disadvantage. Because the other participants do not know who makes the opinion, there is no ownersh ip for the opinion given. Experts may not be fully committed as they will not receive credit for their opinion. b. Can be time consuming as it requires iterations. c. Requires participants’ time and commitment so some participants may back out before the study is completed.

Quani’s Story

Family Genealogy Paper A family that prays together stays together is an idiom passed down from generations to generations. My family stands firm on this phrase and will continue to pass it down to generations to come. As I conducted a few conversations with family members, from the maternal side of my family, I understood why they believed in the quote and I will continue to pass it down to my kids and family. The reason I researched my mother's side of the family was because they are arger than my father's side and they are in close proximity of each other.My mom's side of the family grew up in a small North Carolinian town called Pinetop. I went back as far as my great-great grandparents and their names were Edward and Rachael Crummedy. They were sharecroppers and they both passed away when my great-grandmother was 9 years old. My great-grandparents are the late Columbus and Clara Crummedy Dickens. Born in 1913, Columbus Dickens grew up to be a sharecropper and provider for his fa mily. Columbus worked for a white man who wned the property that the Dickens family resided on.He would work on the farm all year long Just so that the family could stay on the farm and also have food to eat. His return pay would be a stipend at the end of the year that went towards the bills for the house, so he never really saw any money for his own good. During certain times of the year he had to hire other people to help him maintain the farm (who were usually family members) and they would receive their pay from whatever Columbus received. If Colu

Advantages of Raw Milk Essay Example for Free

Advantages of Raw Milk Essay ? From the time of Hippocrates to until just after World War II, this â€Å"white blood† nourished and healed uncounted millions. Clean raw milk from pastured cows is a complete and properly balanced food You could live on it exclusively if you had to indeed, published accounts exist of people who have done just that What’s in it that makes it so great? Let’s look at the ingredients to see what makes it such a powerful food Proteins Our bodies use amino acids as building blocks for protein. Depending on who you ask, we need 20-22 of them for this task Eight of them are considered essential, in that we have to get them from our food. The remaining 12-14 we can make from the first eight via complex metabolic pathways in our cells Raw cow’s milk has all 8 essential amino acids in varying amounts, depending on stage of lactation About 80% of the proteins in milk are caseins- reasonably heat stable and, for most, easy to digest Lactoferrin (14), an iron-binding protein, has numerous beneficial properties including improved absorption and assimilation of iron Ice cream – we don’t drink milk, we eat. Milk is our first food Mammals – short time milk 50 years ago 2000 pounds of milk per year Now top producers over 50000 pounds, how is it done ? Drugs, antibiotics, hormones, specialized cow breeding†¦ breeding cows for specialized skimmed milk. Skimmed milk cow. Its insane , and rocket fuel Cow’s milk also contain blood Kills Vitamin B6 –Pyridoxine Vitamin B12—Cyanocobalamin Diabitis – no proper enzymes to digest proteins. Advantages of Raw Milk. (2017, Mar 14).

Vancouver Second Narrows Bridge Collapse Assignment

Vancouver Second Narrows Bridge Collapse - Assignment Example Several parties, both individuals and the government were impacted due to the occurrence of the collapse. The disaster cost the Canadian government a total of $16 million. The collapsed occurred at the time when construction work was in progress; as a result, 19 lives were lost including a diver who volunteered to retrieve bodies from the water. In 1958 at around 3:40 p.m. a loud sound reverberated across Vancouver and brought tragedy and non-forgettable memories that still haunt the thoughts of those that witnessed the incident. The massive bridge in Second Narrows in the Burrard Inlet which was under construction for two years, unexpectedly collapsed and tons of debris fell into the waterway. Dozens of laborers way swept away resulting in the tragic death of iron workers, painters, an operating engineer, two engineers and a driver who had embarked on a rescue operation. The bridge was constructed by the Dominion Bridge firm on the Burrad inlet. Its highest point was one seventy five feet above the water. It was later revealed that one of the steel plans in the structures had bucked making the whole structure to collapse. The workers were earning an average of $3.85 an hour equivalent to $25 in today’s currency. The six lane girder truss bridge was to link North Vancouver and the city of Vancouver. The key cantileve r structure about 620 meters long had a 335m cantilever span and two 467 feet anchor spans (Eric, 2011). The bridge also had four steel trusses measuring 285 feet and nine concrete made spans. The construction of the bridge had started in 1956 and was expected to be complete by1958 at a budgeted fee of about $16 million. The parts that fell were the newly built northern anchor spans and a truss span directly adjacent to it. The collapse occurred when the workers were just moving more steel to the pendent end. The bent that was

Phillip Morris Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Phillip Morris - Assignment Example g stern regulations and enforcement measures to address illicit trade such as tracking, tracing, labeling, recordkeeping, and liaising with governments on precise agreements, aimed at addressing the illegal trade in cigarettes. In order to adapt to this regulatory force, Phillip has developed an international system that tracks and traces both tobacco products and the manufacturing equipment. In addition, Phillip controls the supply chain by curbing illicit trade. Phillip has researched on the risk related to the products with the main goal being developing methods to assess if a product has the likelihood of reducing disease related to smoking. Phillip also educates the consumers on the effects of the products causing heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic bronchitis. He also warns that smoking is addictive and becomes hard to quit. In future, this force will be fully effective since illicit trade in cigarettes harms both the consumers and manufactures. This will in turn reduce the trade in illicit cigarettes. Philip Morris needs to analyze the effects of such processes on the success of the company. 1. The implementation of company policies has improved the stature of the organization. This is by creating a distinct way of addressing issues. Furthermore, research gives insight into the development of modern

Psychosocial interventions and cognitive behavioural therapy. A Case Essay

Psychosocial interventions and cognitive behavioural therapy. A Case Study - Essay Example The death occurred several months ago and Rita has been unable to get past her grief. Rita was personable to all staff and she took the assessments easily. She was assessed to have complicated grief, depression and anxiety. There are several challenges for Rita that as clinicians we will attempt to sort out so that she can receive the medical assistance that she needs. Rita was diagnosed with complicated grief as one of the first "symptoms" of her health needs. There are several issues that come about because of complicated grief. Wagner, Knaevelsrud and Maercker found that when a significant person dies it can leave a spouse with a variety of emotions from a post-traumatic stress situation to increased passion and optimism. They also cite that there is a larger body of evidence that shows complicated grief as a disorder that should be seen as different than depression (Wagner, Knaevelsrud and Maercker 2007: 157). Langner and Maerker argue that complicated grief is a disorder that shows "as a combination of sustained intrusion, avoidance and maladjustment symptoms" (Langner and Maerker 2005 cited in Wagner et. al. 2007: 157). They also suggest that this disorder can be related to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) because it usually is a reaction to having exposure to an event that was stressful. For Rita, the complicated grief is a result of her husbands death which was her traumatic event. His death was not expected when it happened and she was not prepared for it. She may have some responses that are similar to the PTSD symptoms but they do not seem to be the most prevalent in her diagnosis. As the psychiatric nurse part of the mental health team, it is important o notice that grief is always something that happens in life. Most people will have a healthy relationship with grief because they will go through anger ad other emotions naturally. Some may feel that the people who are attempting to help them have ulterior motives. The bereaved may also

HYPOTHETICAL Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

HYPOTHETICAL - Essay Example The partnership act of 1891, section five, defines partnership as a business organization formed by two or more people for the purposes of making a profit. According to the act, there must be involved, for the purposes of conducting the business as a joint venture. There must be obligations between the partners and sharing of profits among them determines partnership. In the case of Canny Gabriel Castle Jackson Advertising (pty) ltd vs. Volume Sales Finance (pty), (1974) 131 CLR 321, the high court ruled that for there to be a partnership, sharing of profits and loses must occur, and an organized structure of operation must be proved (Higgins and Victoria, 1970). In the above scenario, there is partnership between Henry and Angus. This is because the two agreed to form the business as a joint venture and they share profits together. This satisfies the requirements of the partnership act, section 6(c) and section 5 (1). In section 6, sub section c, it states that a partner is considered in a partnership if he has a stake in the earnings and section 5 subsection 1, identifies a partnership as a relationship between two consenting parties aimed at making profits. Under the law, Lorenzo cannot be considered a partner of the business entity. This is outlined in the partnership act, section 6 subsection c (v1). The law states that a person receiving annuity from the business by selling the persons goodwill is not by reason a partner in the business. This section disqualifies Lorenzo from being a partner of the firm since he does not share in the profits of the business. Even though his name is on the business, it acts as goodwill and it does not necessarily make him a partner. From the above analysis, the partners of the business are Henry and Angus, and FRSPL should look at various legal mechanisms of recovering their debts from the

Book Review on Economic Sophisms, by Frdric Bastiat Essay

Book Review on Economic Sophisms, by Frdric Bastiat - Essay Example This argument is extended to high tariffs, because these tariffs do not benefit the consumer, only the manufacturer. Discussion Bastiat begins the argument by examining the theory of scarcity verses the theory of abundance. One of the arguments that protectionists put forth is that free trade causes a surplus of goods, and that this will drive down the price of goods sold. Bastiat refutes this argument by noting that, while the theory of scarcity does benefit the producers, the consumers are benefited when goods are abundant, and that, if man did not operate by the exchange of goods, abundance would be more beneficial to him in the long run (Bastiat, 1964, p. 10). Bastiat takes issue with the analysis of protectionists because it so heavily favors the side of the producers, while not looking at the perspective of the consumers. Protectionism produces scarcity and lessens the obstacles to production for the producers, but the consumer, who will have to pay higher prices because goods are scarcer, is not considered in the equation (Bastiat, 1964, p. 29). Further, Bastiat takes issue that the success of the foreign competitor will mean the failure of the domestic firm, even if the foreign competitor has better conditions to produce the commodity. ... However, Bastiat rejects this argument. Rather, Bastiat argues that each competitor can produce according to how strong he is, but it does not mean that one succeeds and one fails (Bastiat, 1964, p. 30). Furthermore, such an arrangement, where country A produces a commodity cheaper than country B, and is allowed to freely export the commodity into country B, benefits the consumers, and Bastiat sees this as an appropriate ends to the means (Bastiat, 1964, p. 42). A further error refuted by Bastiat, which is related to the previous error that countries do not have equal conditions of production, therefore protectionism is valid to protect the domestic firms from cheap imports, is that high taxes are needed on foreign imports to equalize the costs of goods. This is especially true when the targeted country has high domestic taxes. If the domestic taxes are high, then foreign tariffs must also be high. If this were not true, the domestic products would be substantially more expensive, du e to the high taxes, and would therefore be less desirable to consumers to buy then the foreign competitors. Bastiat refutes this by pointing out that the people get a return on their investment in these domestic taxes, through the building of roads, bridges and the like. However, the protectionist tariffs, argues Bastiat, are not for the good of the people, but for the producers. Yet the people pay to subsidize the firms. Further, free trade benefits the people, because exporting French goods means that other countries are paying the taxes that the French would be paying (Bastiat, 1964, pp. 48-49). Bastiat also makes the argument that protectionists are, essentially, making the

Mark and Spencer Strategy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Mark and Spencer Strategy - Essay Example According to the paper findings in order to get deeper understandings of the external factors affecting the company’s operations including trends and environmental issues. The PESTLE analysis is used to analyse the business market and establish the potential external issues affecting the business in the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental circles.From this essay it is clear the political set up in the business environment affects the consumers’ buying power and the regulations governing the entity. It is therefore important for Marks Spencer to take into account certain political issues before introducing a give business strategy. The company is based in the UK whose political environment is relatively stable. In addition to, the tax and labor systems in the country have been regarded as the most attractive in the developed world.  The UK economy is ranked as being the fourth largest in the world and it is viewed to be an open economy. It is further characterised by well managed fiscal and monetary policies with full financial government support and low inflation rates. The company should consider any short- term and long- term issues affecting its operations before implementing any strategy. The socio- cultural factors affecting entities differ across countries. Being an international company, Marks & Spencer has spread its operations across the globe. The management needs to address this issue by looking at some of the factors affecting the consumers’ attitudes, tastes and preferences in local and foreign markets.  ... In addition to, the tax and labor systems in the country have been regarded as the most attractive in the developed world.   Economic Factors The UK economy is ranked as being the fourth largest in the world and it is viewed to be an open economy. It is further characterised by well managed fiscal and monetary policies with full financial government support and low inflation rates. The company should consider any short- term and long- term issues affecting its operations before implementing any strategy (Left, 2001). The company is advised to invest more in the clothing industry as the young people are more likely to spend their disposable income on clothing. Social Factors The socio- cultural factors affecting entities differ across countries. Being an international company, Marks & Spencer has spread its operations across the globe (Rayner, 2008). The management needs to address this issue by looking at some of the factors affecting the consumers’ attitudes, tastes and pre ferences in local and foreign markets. Taking these aspects into consideration ensures that they meet the needs of the organisation. Technological Factors Technology is an important factor since it gives a company competitive advantage over its competitors in the global market. Marks & Spencer competitors are argued to be more developed in the application of technology (Rayner, 2008). This can be observed from the fact that the company introduced online shopping and loyalty cards after their major competitors. This can have an adverse impact on the entity’s competitive position and it’s a high time the company started using the latest technology in their sales and production process. Legal Factors The legal environment in the UK is favourable